Conflict and Agricultural Investment in Nigeria: A Spatial Analysis of Recent Trends
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.70861/ujed20250202006Keywords:
Conflict, Agricultural investment, Spatial Econometrics, Nigeria, Development Economics, Spillover EffectsAbstract
This study examines the complex relationship between conflict and agricultural investment in Nigeria from 2010 to 2024, employing advanced spatial econometric methods to analyze spillover effects and regional interdependencies. Using data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Database (ACLED), Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), and various investment databases, we construct a state-year panel dataset covering all 36 Nigerian states plus the Federal Capital Territory. Our analysis reveals significant negative direct and indirect effects of conflict on agricultural investment, with particularly pronounced impacts in the Northeast and Northwest regions. The Spatial Durbin Model results indicate that a one-unit increase in conflict events reduces local agricultural FDI by 13.4% while generating negative spillovers of 8.9% in neighbouring states, for a total effect of -22.3%. Policy implications include the need for spatially-targeted interventions, cross-state coordination mechanisms, and conflict-sensitive agricultural development programs that account for both direct and spillover effects.
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